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FAQ's

DRP Genocide

2009

• There are fewer deaths during this year than the high period of conflict between 2003 and 2004.
• However, access to humanitarian agencies and international peacekeeping has become more difficult.
• Government and rebel forces attacks are continuing in West Darfur.  
• Meanwhile, Khartoum continues to deny the atrocities committed in Darfur and resist provisions in the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which originally ended the North-South civil war.   Consequently, conflict between the government and southern troops is increasing.
• However, The NCP intends to limit opposition from emerging, resettle key allies on cleared land, and defies the Security Council’s resolutions by not disarming the Janjaweed irregulars.
• Rebel signatories of the Darfur Peace Agreement in 2006, the Sudan Liberation Army faction of Minni Minawi, in particular, have continued to attack civilians, humanitarians, the AU mission, and internally displaced person (IDP) camps.
• Moreover, rebel movements that have not signed the DPA continue to fragment and grow in number. 
• Inter-Arab dissension has also continues to increase violence because of the tribes’ conflicting land claims. Consequently, there is a growing risk of an Arab insurgency and potential alliances with non-Arab rebel groups.
• The May 2006 Darfur Peace Agreement had officially become a failure. As a result, an AU/UN mediator, former Foreign Minister of Burkina Faso Djibrill Bassole, and the Arab League started a new effort to solve the conflict during peace talks in Qatar.
• These new realities call for a broader mediation between the perpetrators and victims of the conflict. The DPA, Darfur-Darfur Dialogue, and Consultation process all address the core issues.
   

Bashir’s Indictment

• During July 2008, the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor submitted an arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omar Bashir for genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes in Darfur.
• On March 4, 2009, the ICC issued an indictment of Bashir for crimes against humanity and war crimes.
• Consequently, international pressure is forcing Khartoum to find a peaceful solution to the conflict, including the past efforts by the Arab League in late 2008 to join the government and various rebel groups for peace talks in Qatar. As the first step, the government signed a “confidence-building” agreement to initiate talks with key rebel groups, specifically the Justice and Equality Movement.

• To further thwart the arrest warrant, President Omar al-Bashir is making last-minute friends including members of the rebel groups, members of the African Union, the Arab League, and China.
   

• His supporters believe the ICC, a relatively new court, is undermining Bashir’s leadership and ability to initiate peace and see it as a vehicle of regime change.
   

• Both Sudan’s neighboring countries and Bashir’s supporters believe if Bashir leaves, Sudan’s internal and external problems may lead to regional instability.
   

  • In regards to internal conflict…
     

    • The Comprehensive Peace Accord between Khartoum and South Sudan may crumble and reinitiate a North-South Civil war again.
       

    • Moreover, the Darfur conflict may continue if rebel groups refuse to enter talks in reponse to the weak leadership in Khartoum.
       

  • In regards to external issues…
     

    • Currently, neighboring Egypt is managing the millions of Sudanese refugees in its borders.
       

      • Egypt and Sudan have had a history of entanglement. From 1899 to 1956, Sudan was administered as Egypt and Great Britain’s condominium. Today, Cairo is an important ally of Sudan. It is both the leader of the Arab world and a strategic ally of European countries and the US or bridge to the West.
         

    • Moreover, Sudan is surrounded by other conflicts in Chad, Eritrea, and Israel.
       

• Although risks are evident, others claim that Bashir’s indictment should bring stability to the region by opening peace efforts in Darfur. Bashir’s opponents view his indictment as a victory against genocide.
   

Other Consequences of an Indictment

• Bashir’s indictment may compel the National Congress Party (NCP), the majority party, to recognize that international efforts to prosecute the perpetrators in the Darfur Genocide. This may either lead to greater tension or more open diplomatic talks.
• The Bashir regime may continue to encourage violence against IDP camps. Moreover, it may even declare a state of emergency and clamp down on internal political opposition. This may altogether lead to more instability in the region.
• In addition, the Khartoum government is making sure that economic investment will continue to grow in its nation. Likewise, oil-driven nations, such as China, are making sure it can continue to export oil from Sudan.
  
  Unfortunately, the International Crisis Group believes that the “more likely outcome is that Bashir will remain in power with no prospect of ending up before the ICC any time soon.”