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What is happening: 2006
Will Chad be the next Darfur?
1. Destabilize both Chad and Darfur
2. Revert to a Proxy War against Chad’s
weak army
3. Possibly overthrow Chad’s government
Increasing Violence:
▪ Rebels
extort cash from commercial trucks and loot nomads’
livestock
▪ The
Government lacks resources to stop this.
▪ This is
leading to an increase in tribal warfare
Chad’s Security at Risk:
▪ The
Sudanese government is sending allied Chadian insurgent and
Zaghawa based rebel groups from Darfur to Chad, to overthrow
President Deby and his autocratic government
▪ The
violence is reverting to Proxy War against Chad’s weak
army
The Sudanese Government has direct involvement with the following
Alliances:
1) The
United Front for Change and Democracy (FUC)
a. It
is made of RDL, SCUD, and six smaller rebel groups
b.
Are located in Western Darfur near Geneina
c.
Rebel Groups are mostly the overgrowth of National Resistance
Army
Their
objective is to:
1. To remove Chad’s President
Deby
2. Return peace and security to
Chad, promote unity,
harmony, social injustice, and equal rights
3. To organize a national forum
to develop a political consensus for a restored democratic process
2) The Deby-
SLA alliance
a. Is
an alliance between SLA and JEM rebel groups
b.
Their objective is to occupy the Sudanese government and reduce
the number of insurgents coming from there
c.
Performed many attacks which exposed the Sudanese
Government’s direct involvement
**
Although they have internal conflict and continue fragmenting, alliances
and independent rebel groups are united against Chad’s government.
Zones of Military Activity and Areas mostly Affected in 2006:
1) The Tawila-Graida corridor has continued Janjaweed attacks as a part of Khartoum’s counter-insurgency strategy
2) Western
Darfur/ Chad Border have continuous attacks on villages by allied
insurgency groups as Jebel Moon, Masteri, Kebel, SLA, JEM, and the
National Movement for Reform and Development (NMRD)
The
Violence has augmented the humanitarian crisis:
1) Tens of
thousands more are displaced
2)
Humanitarian aid has been obstructed
3) 3.5
million war-affected civilians are dependent on food and medical
aid
The
African Union Faltering (AMIS):
1) The AU
has 7000 personnel, but needs more troops
2) The
AU could not increase its size nor extend mandate after 2005 because
a.
It is entirely supported by donors, and therefore has a limited
budget
b. Is afraid it would not be able to execute
larger mandate
c. Listens to the Sudanese Govenrment which
refuses an foreign
intervention
3) The AU
lacks land weapons, sufficient air support, tactical
communications, and light capability
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