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Background of Darfur Conflict

What is happening: 2006

Will Chad be the next Darfur?

•       Cross border conflict is increasing because rebel groups and refugees are leaking into Chad from Sudan
   

•       The Sudanese Government has a counter-insurgency strategy:

•  They are allying with Chadian and Sudanese Rebels to:

1.      Destabilize both Chad and Darfur

2.      Revert to a Proxy War against Chad’s
      weak army

3.      Possibly overthrow Chad’s government

•       The Sudanese government and main insurgent group, the Sudan
        Liberation Army continue violating the Ceasefire Agreement that
        both Chad and Sudan signed in 2004

   

Increasing Violence:
 

•       Chadian rebel groups are regrouping in Western Darfur
   

•       The Sudanese government uses air power, supports militias, and stokes inter-communal violence in their counter-insurgency campaign
   

•       Banditry against nomads, displaced individuals, and civilians continues Chad’s political Security is in danger

 ▪   Rebels extort cash from commercial trucks and loot nomads’
 livestock 
 

 ▪   The Government lacks resources to stop this.
 

 ▪   This is leading to an increase in tribal warfare

Chad’s Security at Risk:    

•        Chad’s political Security is in danger

 ▪   The Sudanese government is sending allied Chadian insurgent and
  Zaghawa based rebel groups from Darfur to Chad, to overthrow
  President Deby and his autocratic government    

   ▪    The violence is reverting to Proxy War against Chad’s weak
   army 
 

•        Cross border conflict is increasing because rebel groups and refugees are
   leaking into Chad from Sudan

The Sudanese Government has direct involvement with the following Alliances:

1)    The United Front for Change and Democracy (FUC)

a.        It is made of RDL, SCUD, and six smaller rebel groups

b.       Are located in Western Darfur near Geneina

c.        Rebel Groups are mostly the overgrowth of National Resistance 
 Army

Their objective is to:

1.      To remove Chad’s President Deby 

2.      Return peace and security to Chad, promote unity, harmony, social injustice, and equal rights 

3.      To organize a national forum to develop a political consensus for a restored democratic  process

2)    The Deby- SLA alliance

a.    Is an alliance between SLA and JEM rebel groups

b.    Their objective is to occupy the Sudanese government and reduce 
  the number of insurgents coming from there

                   c.    Performed many attacks which exposed the Sudanese
                          Government’s direct involvement

 ** Although they have internal conflict and continue fragmenting, alliances and independent rebel groups are united against Chad’s government.

Zones of Military Activity and Areas mostly Affected in   2006:

1)      The Tawila-Graida corridor has continued Janjaweed attacks as a part of  Khartoum’s counter-insurgency strategy

2)   Western Darfur/ Chad Border have continuous attacks on villages by allied insurgency groups as Jebel Moon, Masteri, Kebel, SLA, JEM, and the National Movement for Reform and Development (NMRD)

 The Violence has augmented the humanitarian crisis:

1)      Tens of thousands more are displaced

2)      Humanitarian aid has been obstructed

3)      3.5 million war-affected civilians are dependent on food and medical
aid
 

 The African Union Faltering (AMIS):

1)      The AU has 7000 personnel, but needs more troops

2)     The AU could not increase its size nor extend mandate after 2005 because

a.     It is entirely supported by donors, and therefore has a limited
        budget

b.     Is afraid it would not be able to execute larger mandate

c.     Listens to the Sudanese Govenrment which refuses an foreign
        intervention

3)      The AU lacks land weapons, sufficient air support, tactical 
 communications, and light capability